For a few reasons, I’m really sorry to write this column.
One is because no one likes Smartseth quoting herself by saying, “I told you,” but I’m going to do just that.
Second, because what is right on this occasion means that the driver has experienced a very challenging spell and has yet to find the other side.
And three because another driver might be trying to face the same fate. Because of the 2024 Red Bull’s honest and terrible decision-making.
The “I told you” part relates to a column I wrote in December when it was revealed that Sergio Perez had been dropped by Red Bull. Perez was there for a long time, and was an experienced driver intended to act, and the environment called for both the driver and the team to start a new start, so it was the right move. There was no light at the edge of the tunnel.
The wrong move was to choose Liam Lawson instead. That’s not said in hindsight – here is an excerpt from that column:
“The general denominator is not a single driver. That’s the seat. And that’s where Red Bull’s next move seems even more wrong. Red Bull will follow the old approach of tracking drivers quickly and will follow a position where they are more likely to fail than they succeed.
“That’s not a small amount of Liam Lawson’s capabilities, but in the environment it’s based on the experience of all the drivers before him.”
If you didn’t see it at the time, you can read the full column here and see how Yui Tsuda felt that it was the right choice to replace Perez for multiple reasons.
Christian Horner argued that the decision to promote Lawson was based on his potential and that he was on a trajectory that allowed him to improve over time. Clearly, despite Horner’s words over the winter, two races were clearly enough to determine that improvements were far away.
Something else, after giving Lawson a seat, he said, “I think one of the things we’re trying to protect Liam is hope.” However, Red Bull expected much more from him in the opening of the second round of the season. Red Bull has the right to feel that there was a lowest level Lawson hadn’t been able to reach before. The P20 for each qualifying session in China is as bad as it gets – but the team needs to admit it’s wrong.
Lawson had just started 11 races when he was promoted. He was still able to learn in Formula 1 and was not given the environment to do it. What goes so badly through the opening two race weekend is that despite the opposition claims, Red Bull didn’t have enough data and information from its first set of samples, and in itself is only responsible.
If you’re a young driver looking at your future career path, Red Bull always seemed cruel, but it also had the appeal of funding much of your career. However, as seats are becoming increasingly poor alongside Max Verstappen, you’ll want to push Red Bull even further up your wish list and sign with other teams.
And if you are either chalerm yoovidhya or Mark Mateschitz, one of the owners of Red Bull, then certainly, has it been time to ask who is really making these decisions, how and why?
Should the responsibility lie at the Horner’s door? Or Helmut Marcoes, the de facto head of the Red Bull Junior Driver Program? For the past 18 months, the pair has been consistently on the same page and often have different views on the driver, which is not necessarily a bad thing in itself, but clearly not a dynamic that is working. And perhaps the fact that both have such strong opinions clouds our ability to make decisions right.
Horner’s quote on movement says that choices are made “collectively” and spreads the share of responsibility among unexplained groups. One thing that does is to allow you to make poor choices without accountability. It appears that only the driver is accountable.
You might think that the call to swap Tsunoda and Lawson quickly this year is a positive result as it offers a much smarter lineup of drivers in December. But it’s at the expense of both drivers.
It’s true that Lawson is back to an environment where he worked for last year, but he now has to rebuild his confidence after such painful handling. Just two weeks ago, he was preparing to make his debut with the team in the closest to home race, but he is already considered not enough. At least not now.
Meanwhile, Tsunoda has to jump into the obviously problematic car with a very short notice and try to perform better than the two drivers who went before him. Ah, he must do it with a truck that punishes the smallest mistakes badly under the immeasurable scrutiny of the crowds of his home. Pre-season tests, no winter preparing for the Red Bull Engineering Team. There’s nothing.
The fact that the larger experience of horned sings is now being cited as one of the main reasons for the Switch is also not considered to be significant enough before the two races, so it doesn’t hold much water. The need for this year’s experience may certainly have been predicted, as Red Bull didn’t seem to have run smoothly until the end of last season.
The Japanese driver may be better than Lawson managed to do in the opening two rounds, but history suggests that he is still unlikely to be particularly close to Verstappen, and history suggests that Red Bull management will denounce the driver. Also.
It’s time for team leadership to take responsibility for the second car’s failure and stop changing responsibility. Red Bulls are all on the same page and need to work together to find a management structure.
Over the past five years, no other team has seen consistently different performance levels between both sides of the garage than Red Bull. Verstappen may be performing a miracle, but last year he showed that he will continue to paint over the cracks as if it were simple as expectations began to expand.
Of course, Dutchman is so talented that you have to make him a priority, but it also benefits Verstappen to come up with ways to create an environment where another driver can also be competitive. Now he’s carrying the team.
Red Bull’s slide from the dominant force in 2023 to the fourth fastest team 18 months later is very noteworthy. And that’s certainly not a drawback of all the second drivers.
Eventually, the first driver may get bored of the criticism game.