It’s a much-anticipated showdown: No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz will face off on Sunday for the French Open Men’s title. The two were combined to win the final five majors, but they never played each other in the final. And up to this point, both have won every final they’ve played. Alcaraz is 4-0. Sinner 3-0.
Who will win? Our experts place importance on how each one can separate their victory.
What can Alkaraz do to defeat a sinner?
Rennae Stubbs: Use his athleticism and speed by turning defense into attacks and irritating him to push the sinner. He must be willing to come to the net and hurry up the sinner, especially in drop shots, to move the sinner to some of the courts he isn’t that comfortable with.
Simon Cambers: Well, he needs to do what he did in the latest four meetings. Alcaraz led 2-1 with Clay and recently won the semi-finals in Rome last year. He has edges on the surface. There, his forehand is higher and allows his enemies to move around the court more than elsewhere.
The rally is long and explosive, but his better all-around game – drop shots, angles, netplay – gives him an edge as long as he works well, as long as he’s certainly better than he did against Mumetti in Samis. He would also want to make the match physical. The sinner is incredibly strong, but chasing the clay Alcaraz for four to five hours is something most people can manage, and the Spaniards run through everything.
D’Arcy Maine: Alkaraz has a lot to do with his side to enter this final. Aside from being a defending champion and having experience playing in the finals at Roland Garros, he has won the past four meetings and two previous Clays. In a 7-6 (5), 6-1 victory in the Italian Open Finals just three weeks ago, Alcaraz called his performance “one of the best” and proudly spoke about his ability to focus on the game plan until the final point.
He must use his diversity and physicality to do the same again, patiently picking and attacking his spots, constantly changing the pace. Thinner seemed to have returned from the three-month suspension and missed the beat, but has not played more than three sets since the fourth round at the Australian Open. The longer the game, the more you prefer Alkaraz, the better he will know it.
Bill Connelly: Keep doing that. Alcaraz has won four consecutive times in this series, and all three of the past three come mainly from Alcaraz’s ability to hit the winner against Sinner’s increasingly inexplicable defense. So far, at the French Open, opponents have hit the winner against the sinner with 15% of the points. Especially in the last three meetings, Alcaraz hit the winner with 22.3% points in the French Open semifinals last year, after a careful first set of 21.8% in Beijing last October and 22.5% in the second set in Rome last month.
Anyone who scored short points in this series tends to win, and Alcaraz managed to turn the table at that point. He is the only player to beat a sinner since August last year and appears to need his best offensive game to get the job done.
What can a sinner do to defeat Alkaraz?
Stubbs: Use his power to push Alkaraz’s forehand. He cannot allow Alkaraz to direct him. It is essential to keep the ball as deep as possible to control the points. And he needs to have a higher percentage of first serves.
Camber: Thinner looked great at reaching the final without dropping a set, and he built that invincible aura thanks to victory in a 20 straight grand slam match. However, he must serve Alkaraz very well. This is because Alkaraz uses short returns.
Thinner hits the ball very hard, so if he’s playing the game he can drill holes in Alkaraz more than anyone else, but Alkaraz gets more balls back than all other enemies, so he really needs to be patient. The sinner also recognizes Alkaraz’s devastating forehand, so expect to pepper Alkaraz’s backhand and wait for a short ball. If he can do those things, the sinner has a good chance.
main: Thinner hasn’t dropped the set yet for reasons in this tournament, so he’s been much more solid and firm. Even against Novak Djokovic, he continued to focus on the game, showing his nerve steel in the tiebreak of the third set.
That measured calmness and flapping will become a major Sunday at its greatest moment. If Alkaraz shows signs of nerves, the sinner must be capitalized. He also has to find a way to neutralize Alkaraz’s furious movements and ability to return almost every ball.
As Simon said, he must have a strong serving performance and give Alcaraz a chance to easily point. The Italian Open marked Thinner’s first tournament, and he certainly only improved on a match-by-match basis. Have you been surprised to see him stomp on it more on Sunday?
Connelly: I agree that landing his first serve is huge – the sinner escaped with many first service malfunctions against Djokovic (especially the first half of the match), but that’s not what you want to soak up frequently. However, the key to Alkaraz could reach Alkaraz’s serve. The sinner is 4-3 against Alcaraz when he wins at least 37% of Alcaraz’s service points, otherwise 0-5. He only cleared 37% during his four-game winning streak against Alcaraz. Therefore, he faces much more breakpoints (38) than he has created (22). In a battle (and sports!) that resulted in such a small margin, he crept out Alkaraz in the service division. That probably needs to be changed to Sunday.
Who will win?
Stubbs: sinner. I think he plays the same way he’s seen before. His record with the Majors was incredible. I feel his level is as good as this tournament has seen him in Clay. Four sets of sinners.
Camber: Alcaraz is 4-0 in the Grand Slam Finals and thinner is 3-0, so something has to be given. These two usually bring out the best from each other, and tennis can be spectacular. But in Clay, where he has a little extra time to chase the ball, Alcaraz has a slight edge. He can win this in 4 or 5 sets.
main: Alcaraz in 4 sets. He has such an impressive season with clay and knows exactly how to defeat an ostensible sinner. This is his title to win. Needless to say, as Bastien Fachan pointed out in X, he will be at an exact age – day – It was when Rafael Nadal won the fifth major. That’s destiny, right?
Connelly: I choose a sinner. Because he is the best player in the world right now (my goodness, it was jarring to see Djokovic emptying his bag of tricks and not even getting a set against him on Friday). It’s easy to see why Alcaraz could have an advantage in particular in clay, but even when Alcaraz beat a sinner, the differences between players were endless. This is a coin toss as far as I’m concerned, and if others are picking their tails, I’m picking their heads!