Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction, Expert Pick: UFC 314

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom is moving on to detail to defeat his biggest fight in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 314 main event between Alexander Volkanovsky and Diego Lopez for the vacant featherweight championship.

Alexander Volkanovski UFC 314 Preview

Staple information:

• Record: 26-5 MMA, 13-4 UFC
• Height: 5’6” Age: 36 Weight: 145 pounds. Reach: 71.5 inches
• The final battle: Knockout loss to Ilia Topuria (February 17, 2024)
• Camping: Freestyle Fighting Gym/Bangta Om Aitai (Australia)
• Stanance/Strike Style: Switch Stance/Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Excellent

Additional information:
+ UFC Featherweight Champion
+ Regional MMA Title
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt
+ National Wrestling Gold Medalist
+ 13 KO victory
+ 3 submission victory
+ 7 first round finish
+ KO Power
+Consistent pace and pressure
+Excellent feint and footwork
+ Accurate shot selection and counter
^Educated lead hand and hard leg kick
+Solid wrestling ability
^Takedown, transition, scrambling
+ Strike from the top side

Diego Lopez UFC 314 Preview

Staple information:

• Record: 27-6 MMA, 6-1 UFC
• Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 72.5 inches
• Final Battle: Decisive victory over Brian Ortega (September 14, 2024)
• Camp: Brazilian Warrior/Legacy MMA (Mexico)
• Stance/Strike Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk Management: Fair

Additional information:
+ Regional MMA Title
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt
+ Multiple Grappling praise
+ 10 KO victory
+ 12 submissions win
+ 15th round finish
+Knockout power
+Active pace and pressure
+ Improve your boxing ability
^Returns the exact left hook and upper cut
+ Hard calf kick
+A great transition grappler
^ Dynamic submission game
+Danger from the back
^ High to low attack

Alexander Volkanovsky vs. Diego Lopez’s point of interest: featherweight fireworks

Brian Ortega (red gloves) will fight Diego Lopez (blue blob) at Nosh UFC 306 in Riad season. (Stephen R. Sylvanie, Imaging Images)

No one says no to scrap, but Lopez proves he step up in multiple ways.

Having improved his impressive skills in recent years, Lopez shows natural pop in his punches and kicks. Lopez did a little better at stepping in and made measurable advances from his early days as a brawler in jiu-jitsu.

Lopez’s aggressive instinct is clearly still intact, but the 30-year-old Brazilian displays a solid straight punch that will help him as he moves forward and counters the kick. Whenever he aligns with his fellow Orthodox opposition, Lopez unleashes the calf kick, often set by an underrated lead hand.

The rope can also attack hard from the collar tie, but you should be careful when closing in the Volkanovski.

A praised wrestler-turned rugby player, Volkanovsky stepped into the scene as a cam-forward slugger who approached his pocket like a juggernaut, initially coming from a compact stance. A natural athlete, Volkanovski shows little trouble when he has to crash the distance with his patent kick and cross.

But since taking in the kickboxing influences of Brad Liddell and his sister Jim City, Volkanovsky has sharpened his feint, footwork and overall impressive foundations, measuring and moving around the space in a smoother, more balanced way than before. The 36-year-old Australian changes his combination approach, leading with a restrained kick in the stance, and finishing the combination with a long lead hand.

Volkanovski also took some of his enthusiastic sw walking from his stable, showing specific shots and landing others with a large picture in mind.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Failure: Potential Grappling Threat

Islam Makhachev (Red Gloves) fights Alexander Volkanovsky (blue gloves) at UFC 284 at RAC Arena. (Jasmine Frank, USA TODAY SPORTS)

Given that both men come from the grappling base, no one should be shocked if this featherweight party touches the floor at any point.

Grappling From the age of five, Lopez has been a lifelong martial artist, moving the floor like a second nature.

Absolute nightmare during the transition, ropes flow through position and submission indexes faster than any fake AI program can replicate. Whether combining an armbar with a triangle threat or taking a foot at the exit, Lopez is perfect for maintaining the lowest theme in his attacks.

In the recent stretches of his career, Lopez appears to have made a real effort to strengthen his wrestling both defensively and offensively.

The rope not only shows clinch trips and reactive shots in his back pocket, but also shows the Brazilian’s upgraded ability to protect and command actions from clinching. Still, I would like to know how Lopez’s entries stack up against Volkanovsky (he must choose to be attacked in that department).

Since suppressing his attacks and fighting smarter, Volkanovski seems even more difficult to defeat and control meaningfully, especially against the fence, due to his overall perception of positioning.

Notes on Alex Volkanovsky’s counter – Love that he uses my favorite MMA get-up: Halfguard to Single Leg Guest Up

Rather than mowing the legs for extra leverage, nail the key details on the lower bottom beneath the donkey. pic.twitter.com/emqosravxw

– And Tom (@dantommma) February 7, 2023

Even when it was deprecated, Volkanovski displays solid head positioning and smart details like low underhooks (limiting front choke counters) when trying to do something like a half guard get-up.

Even if defeated by Chad Mendes and the rear mount, Volkanovsky’s intentional reach/framing creates an illusion of further back exposure/control, as basic theme/muscle memory from above takes place here (and therefore slides the operation into the half guard). pic.twitter.com/nehnxtpitc

– And Tom (@dantommma) February 7, 2023

Offensively, Volkanovski appears to match the above trends, and, in contrast to the traditional double and single legs for the fences he prefers, he appears to prefer more efficient options like an internal trip from the clinch. And when Volkanovski can establish his highest position, he embraces honey badger-like sensibilities by asserting his position by punishing strikes and vehicles.

Odds of Alexander Volkanovsky vs Diego Lopez

Odds makers and the public are slightly supportive of the former champions who list Volkanovski -132 and Lopes +104 via Fundael.

Predictions, Picks for Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Between the legitimate appeal of ropes and the looming statistics of fighters who have failed to win titles past 35 in their lightweight class, it’s no surprise to see MMA bettors support the Brazilians in the betting window.

Not only do MMA gamblers tend to prefer younger athletes, they also appreciate measurements like height than women in their early 20s.

So this card is packed with shorter, older products that compete against the larger, larger opportunists.

Now, the sad thing is that this is part of a fighting game, as often and often looks like (Sircle of Life and All), as those blindly betting on aged fighters seem okay. Nevertheless, there are still some that are too difficult to see in the past.

Aside from people forgetting that Volkanovsky was considered a pound-pound fighter so long ago, he also proved himself in the latter round with his ability to adjust the pace and push. The rope, on the other hand, indicates that if you can’t find a finish, it will flag a 3-round issue.

Please don’t get me wrong. Lopes is a proven finisher with the tools to hurt Volkanovski.

Whether Lopez is launching a hard calf kick to disrupt Volkanovsky’s stance, or whether he is trying to replicate the uppercut success Max Holloway found in Australia and the series, he was able to go his way to the UFC Championship with the club.

But the potential problem is that the hardwire for Lopez to power and come back could reach a tough point where it reduces returns against fighter jets like Volkanovski if they can’t find a finish. And if Volkanovski can dictate Jab and Leg-Kick’s traffic as he thinks he can, don’t be surprised to see his right hand (from both stances) begin to find the house with regularity given Lopez’s general culprit.

There is no doubt about Lopez’s skills or the fact that he is likely to be on the right side of this big moment in the fight. But if he can’t find a finish at the 7-8 minute mark, I believe his paper chances for success will begin to diminish dramatically.

As always, I officially siding with a more proven product, to overcome early horrors and pull down the stretch by reminding me of his evil ground and pound game masses.

The pick is Volkanovski for forcing a stop by a round four strike.

prediction: Volkanovski within distance

Where to watch the beginning of Alexander Volkanovsky vs. Diego Lopez

As a main event, Volkanovski and Lopes are expected to take a walk in the octagon around 12:30am ET. Fight is streaming ESPN+ Pay-Per-View.