For several months I had the first 300 words of a feature titled “Verstappen’s Primed” to produce something special sitting on my laptop.
It started on the second round of the season when McLaren already appeared to have a clear advantage over Red Bull. However, that weekend revealed a bigger weakness in RB21 and remained drafted.
He then won in Japan, but at that point it seemed too obvious to complete such a piece. In particular, it meant that Bastappen had arrived in the next round in Bahrain.
By the time I went back to writing more details about the Dutch and his driving, it was following his anomaly at the Spanish Grand Prix. His red fog moment was wrapped in insignificant things with offensive strategies and impressive drives that ruined the argument I wanted to have at the time, and he turned another solid score into a penalty.
All that special achievement has disappeared considering he picked up just one podium between the end and end of summer vacation in Canada’s next round.
Still, I feel that the past three race weekends have a chance to really return to the card. Max Verstappen was able to seize this driver’s championship and become an all-powerful upset given the machinery he had for most of the season.
Of course, the odds are still very stacked against him. Verstappen currently has a 63-point Piastri drift in the drivers’ championship, with 174 still playing throughout the final quarter of the season. However, since summer vacation, Verstappen has scored 86 of the maximum 100 points on offer despite his apparent inability to challenge Zandvoort’s McLaurence.
In Singapore, victory was impossible when he couldn’t pass George Russell at the start, but despite fighting the car with gearbox inconsistencies, Verstappen was still under pressure on Mercedes mid-race, crossing the line just 5.4 seconds behind the race winner while defending from Lando Norris.
As Red Bull Team Principal Laurent Mekies noted after Sunday’s checkered flag, the race weekend at Marina Bay proved that recent profits were not unique to the low-force circuit. After upgrading in Baku and Singapore, Red Bull has cars in better windows at all venues.
For McLaren, the bumps and curb rides in the last two venues, along with the low degradation of Monza and Baku, did not have that strength. However, the performance gap has also been clearly closed, and it is possible that Red Bull has cars that can reach at least close by at least the majority of trucks.
Verstappen is still a long shot of the championship, but the recent gains from Red Bull — coupled with McLaren’s concerns about some of the upcoming tracks — means the doors are still open. Clive Mason/Getty Images
McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella fears Kota may not be the strongest circuit for his team, and points out that Brazil, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are the best absorbers of the cars available to Piastri and Norris. And if that prediction is true, Verstappen has two race weekends.
The 63-point margin sounds obviously loud, but that number was 104 just three races ago. It may not be possible, but he scores another 41 points from Piastri on the next three, with the gap coming in 22 heading towards Las Vegas. I hope McLaren will struggle too.
Yes, that sounds fantasy. But who would predict a reduction in points heading towards Monza and drive away the truck’s run that Red Bull was nowhere to be found a year ago?
And there are other dynamics that reinforce the sense that Verstappen could still be a threat. One is the performance of Mercedes in Singapore, indicating that there is another team that can create a big point differential if the situation is right. It’s both ways, and you can see either Piastry or Norris pulling more quickly and clearly, but that’s an element that McLaren rarely had to deal with for most of the season. Although only three times in the opening round were unable to win, each of them was an independent event. McLaren has not won in the past three times.
McLaren also has internal circumstances. There, two drivers are trying to balance the need to secure their first title and beat their teammates with a desire to maintain team harmony with long-term futures in mind. With just 22 points separate the pair, McLaren is unable to throw that weight behind one car last year so Red Bull can do to repel the fight.
As a four-time world champion looking to embark on an astonishing comeback, Verstappen has nothing to lose. This title was in his hands a long time ago. If that’s the case, he has previous success under his belt – he brings success that gives him a much greater experience of pressure than the two McLaren drivers have.
Norris Winning at the season opener Australian MarkEd hasn’t hit the front at any point when the Dutch first led 1, 029 days, and Verstappen this season. However, members of the team said there was a change in his attitude in Baku when it suddenly seemed like there was something to chase.
For McLaren drivers, they consider each other to be their biggest rivals when it comes to driver championships, but the fact that Verstappen is even the smallest threat adds an extra level of pressure. Many drivers in the race don’t often take the opportunity if you are offered with complete confidence, but Verstappen is certainly one of them, so Piastri and Norris know they need to make sure they don’t offer anything.
Verstappen is still a huge outsider, but Red Bull appears to have taken enough steps to frame him with most circuits. His mere presence adds even more danger to every race weekend in the McLaren pair, and while it still seems immeasurable to actually overhaul them, can you really write him down?