Betting on golf is a beautiful, infuriating, exhilarating puzzle. Standing on the 3 footer, it’s like what your peers are watching. There are many ways to bet on tournaments, but if you blindly fire a complete winner and want the best, you’ll probably find yourself in a financial banker.
Instead, we’ll show you a step-by-step guide on how to build betting cards like a pro, and how to balance risk and reward.
When betting on golf, three important factors often work: course fit, current form, and course history.
A course fit is everything about how a golfer’s skill set matches the layout. Bomber paradise, precision heavy trucks, putting contests and more.
His current form has seen momentum and confidence recently. Because players who stripe gray last week are more attractive than searching for swings.
The history of the course is a comfortable element – some players can see a better look at a particular course, whether it is a grass type or a memory of past successes. The sweet spot is when all three are in place. But in the bet, you are looking for the best value, and sometimes weighing more than the others is where you find the edge.
Understand your betting options
Golf bets don’t just choose winners. There are many ways to get actions – some are safer than others – and if you build your bet correctly, you can still win cash, even if your full pick collapses. Here’s a quick summary of the most popular bets:
The perfect winner
This is the classic “Who has the trophy on Sunday?” bet. The golf field is massive, so the overt odds are juicy, but that means they’re difficult to hit. Tickets for 30-1 are fun, but only if you are betting a complete winner. When your wallet looks like an open and rough in the US, you’ll have a lot of weekends.
Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 finishes
Think of these as more conservative bets. We believe that the top 20 bets have a higher probability. It is not necessary for golfers to win, they must end within a certain range. The top 20 bet at +120 may not be thrilling, but by consistently cashing these, you will keep your bankroll alive while sprinkling the full ticket.
A golfer who is 30-1 to win a tournament has a 3.2% chance of winning. Compare it to a +200 top 20 bet (33% unspoken probability) – is there a big difference? That’s why I bet on longer odds and higher probability of play.
Leader of the first round
This is where things become fun. Instead of sweating out the full four-day tournament, golfers need to take the lead after 18 holes. In many cases, the odds for the first round are 20-1 or higher, so these bet on the fraction of the unit (more on that later). Morning tee time, mild situations and offensive scorers are key factors in the first round leader’s betting. If you like a player to potentially win a tournament, you’ll want to put something in danger so that he comes out strong in the opening round. If it hits, you are potentially rolling the rest of your card at will.
Direct battle
If betting a perfect winner is something like aiming for a pin, then a matchup bet is like a layup to the middle of the green. You simply choose one golfer to defeat another golfer in one round or in a full tournament. A much more controlled way of betting. I prefer to bet full tournaments. This is because it provides great selection results over the course of four days, as opposed to high volatility in a single round. There is also a 3-ball matchup. Think of it as having three players facing each other. It’s a longer odds, but adding a third will make you more risky.
Props and Major Market
Major unleashes a fun bet buffet. Some are seen every week, while others are only seen at the biggest tournament of the year.
Top American, Top Europe, etc. Choose the best finisher from a particular region.
Is there a hole-in-one? : obvious. It’s always fun and always fascinating.
Lowest round, highest round: Will someone go to Fullcam Smith at St. Andrews (-8)? Or would someone post 82 in windy conditions?
Make a cut-perlay: A combination of players who create cut lines.
Bet cards structuring and bet size management
Throwing darts on the board and wanting the bull’s eyes is not a strategy. It’s a great way to run out of money by the weekend. And if you’re putting the same amount on everything, stop now – it’s equivalent to using fairway putters.
Instead, I like to build cards around two or three players and mix different bet types to balance risk and reward. The odds of golf vary widely, so sizing your stakes should be proportional to the risk.
This works because the top 20 provide consistency, cash more frequently, and stabilize the bankroll. The bets in the top 10 and top 5 could be .5 units, but the overt winners are in the range .2 to .25, as they are difficult to hit. The first round leader is even more risky, rewarding, giving shots not only for big wins but also for low bet sizes. Spreading bets across different markets will allow all tournaments to play. Even if your full pick stumbles, your top 20 bets can still be cash. The longer the odds, the smaller the size of the bet. This is because there is a much less chance of a hit. If you’re too big for a long shot, you could quickly get wiped out if you go on a losing streak.
If you are betting multiple players (more than five) in an event, don’t all-in with a single golfer as all stocks need to be balanced. The more players you add, the more you need to adjust the individual bet size to reduce total exposure.
The biggest tournament of the PGA Tour: 4 majors and the “5th major” of golf
Like anything else, betting on golf is to adhere to discipline and use bets as a way to improve your viewing experience. Golf bets can be grinding. If you are hoping to hit a perfect winner every week, you are looking for a rude awakening. But by structuring your bets wisely, managing risks and spreading exposure to different markets, you can stay profitable and keep your sweat alive throughout the weekend.
Our Opening: Country Club, Oakmont (Pa.) June 12th-15th
Open Championship: Royal Portrush (Northern Ireland) July 17th-20th
PGA Championship: Scotty Schaeffler (-11)
Masters Tournament: Rory McIlroy (-11, wins the playoffs)
Athletic Championships: Rory McIlroy (-12, wins the playoffs)
One of the most powerful fields, the giant wallet and TPC sawgrass, is set on stage, and it’s something close to the major as it gets. It may not be the official label, but drama, history and 17-year-old Island Green make it one of the best tournaments of the year.
A bet to open in 2025
The odds are accurate at the time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
The PGA Tour heads to Oakmont Golf Club for golf’s third major, the US Open. I expect atrocities in all the best ways: thick, tall, narrow fairways, lightning, and substandard victory scores. It will be a true test of elite play and elite confidence.
Oakmont is for golfers who thrive in adversity. Think of it like a chess game in a hurricane. To compete in Oakmont, you’ll need laser sharp accuracy from the tee, play the elite mid-iron approach, and extraordinary pace control of the ultra-fast tilted green.
Pars scores well here. If someone gets -4 in the round, they flirt with the legend. Whether you bet or build a fantasy lineup, you want to deal with the 70s and shatter comfortably so you don’t push birdies.
Let’s break down the third major in golf season.
My favorite bet
Colin Morikawa Top 20 (+110)
If you’re building cards around accuracy, discipline and ceiling from ball strike, Morikawa is your man. Oakmont does not punish him for lack of distance, indicating that his strokes were obtained on the hard course (5th). He ranks fifth in approach and fourth in accuracy. This is the textbook Oakmont Metric.
His 2025 results have not popped out, but there is a quiet consistency. There will be eight top 20 finishes with 11 start. Morikawa is always stable under pressure. Internally, he may feel the weight of expectations, but his game tends to look pretty when conditions get tougher. If the short game is neutral, he will be there late Sunday.
Corey Connors Top 20 (+150)
Despite last week’s T27 in Canada, Connors remains one of the best value in the field. You’ve got the top 10 ball strikers built for Oakmont’s disciplined distance setups with accuracy, form.
He ranks 11th for driving accuracy and won the tee green in all starts except one of the following starts this year. Short games are his biggest responsibility, but his ball-hitting profile is exactly what others can withstand when they’re having a spiral. Connors isn’t appealing by highlighting shots of reel types, but he’s stable. On a course like Oakmont, that’s enough.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+260)
Bradley is one of the hottest tee-two green players on the field (second in the last 32 rounds). His 2022 US Open (Solo Seventh) and current form (sequential top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and monument) suggests he has the tool if he holds a serve with the Greens.
Captain Keegan has an underrated touch, hitting a winning level ball around the green, and longer odds than he deserves for his form. He belongs to your card and sprinkles out loud with a long shot lotto ticket worthy of a 75-1AS.
How to play Scotty Scheffler
Let’s be real. His odds are not ideal. For top 5, -150 and +275 win. But that is guaranteed. Schaeffler’s strength is that he is literally elite in everything and his weaknesses are…well, he has nothing.
No one else is in Schaeffler’s shape. The price of -150 is expensive, but it’s justified because it’s a choke that Schaeffler hits.
If you can afford the price, for a steady and reliable foot that will close out your betting cards, Schaeffler’s top five is it. He finished in the top five in six of his final eight starts and continues to lead the field with metrics he gets on almost every stroke, including tee-to-green and approach. This is not a speculation, but a bet rooted in consistency and shape.
If you’re trying to grow your dollar, there are other ways to diversify, such as playing Schaeffler’s first round leader 12-1 or hoping for a top 5/full price live. Oakmont is a set up of Grind It Out, Survival and Advanced kinds of things that opens the door for live betting strategies. Fire on the lowest second round score (after round 1 is completed) can also be a reliable move. Schaeffler is the first on average for round two scores.
Waiting for a show may be a more keen move, especially when other top 20 plays offer more value in advance, unless you’re securing the building around safety or safety from the jump.
And what if he missed out as he’s playing perfect golf from the start? Then just sit down and enjoy the fact that we are witnessing greatness.
Why am I leaving John Rahm?
At first glance, I was ready to hammer the top 10 (+130), but after Rahm’s top 15 finish finished in the Masters and PGA Championship, it was probably completely (12-1), but instead I’m away. He lost strokes in all four rounds at Augusta. This is concerning that anyone with a ball-hitting pedigree will be heading for a course like Oakmont, especially where approach play is all about.
Yes, he bouncing off at the PGA Championship, but that’s just one spike in the LIV Top 10 stretch that doesn’t have the same weight. And now, are we asked to pay +130 for the top 10? Passed. I’ve been nervous about Ram’s game recently at a tour event and was able to hesitate. Venues like Oakmont are looking for calm rather than pressure to wait for an explosion.