As autumn deepens across Europe, the quest to qualify for the 2026 World Cup reaches a decisive stage. With only a few games left in the group stage (scheduled to end in November), the games in October are of real importance. Some countries may be within reach of direct qualification, while others will have to regain confidence or salvage shaky campaigns.
The pressure is unevenly distributed, with some favorites expected to coast while others have to fight. There are some notable matches and storylines planned.
Group E: Spain without Yamal as they play Georgia and Bulgaria
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Spain will be in top form heading into the double header in October. With two brilliant wins, La Roja lead Group E and look ready to take control of the narrative.
This season, Spain will play against Georgia (away) and Bulgaria (home).
Often underrated, Georgia could cause problems, especially if Spain’s selection is disrupted by injury or rotation. In fact, defender Dean Huyssen has already been ruled out due to a muscular problem, forcing Luis de la Fuente to call up the experienced Aymeric Laporte. Young sensation Lamine Yamal remains the driving force in the attack – he is only 18 years old and has high expectations – his dribbling, speed and creativity are already integral to Spain’s drive. Despite this, Barcelona claim the injury and he is left out of the squad for these matches.
Bulgaria, on the other hand, is chasing respectability. Their biggest hope is to frustrate Spain at home and prevent them from taking a commanding lead. For Bulgarians, every point is important not only for the standings but also for national pride.
Group A: Germany should beat Luxembourg and Northern Ireland
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Germany has a tricky October ahead of them, as they will first host Luxembourg and then travel to Northern Ireland. Coach Julian Nagelsmann emphasized the need for two wins to stay on track. However, the road is tougher than expected.
Slovakia are in first place in Group A, and the situation is already difficult for Germany. Germany are in third place behind Northern Ireland on goal difference, and there are concerns about the team. Antonio Rudiger and Jamal Musiala will be absent, while Nico Schlotterbeck will return.
Brentford winger Kevin Shade was called up to the national team this month, providing another option for the side.
The match in Belfast will be particularly instructive. Northern Ireland have so far made the most of narrow margins, but home advantage could increase the pressure on Germany. A slip could give Slovakia and Northern Ireland a huge boost.
Group F: Portugal vs. Republic of Ireland, Hungary
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The Portuguese’s ambitions are heavily influenced by Cristiano Ronaldo, who is now in the final chapter of his legendary international career. His presence in the team remains strong, not only in terms of goals but also in terms of mental edge.
Portugal will play the Republic of Ireland and Hungary in October. Two wins could essentially guarantee direct qualification.
But Ireland got off to a stumbling start under coach Heimir Hallgrimsson, drawing with Hungary and losing to Armenia.
For Portugal, this is not just a matter of athleticism, but a moment to assert dominance. Failure to dispatch Ireland or Hungary decisively could cause cracks in rhythm and depth and cast a shadow over the group’s ambitions.
Group C: Scotland face Greece and Belarus
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Scotland will get through October with two home matches against Greece and Belarus. The Scots have ambitions to challenge Denmark, who currently share the top spot.
Greece has historically had a lot of gray hair and has strong defensive discipline, so it may be difficult to break through. Scotland will be hoping to use their home support to press their attack. Belarus, on the other hand, is a more fragile opponent, but they showed surprise in the qualifying rounds.
From a narrative perspective, Scotland’s strong run here could shake up Group C expectations and disturb Denmark’s restful sleep. For a small country like Belarus, even a single point would be useful.
Group K: Serbia and Albania reignite political standoff as England aim for early qualification
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Serbia vs. Albania will be determined by tensions, not only on the pitch, but also in the political and historical context. In previous draws, both teams were separated to avoid confrontation, but this time they will face off in the preliminary round.
Serbia are chasing England in the group. The Three Lions, who will face Latvia this season, could qualify if Serbia loses in Belgrade.
Albania has an incentive to spoil and disappoint, but from Serbia’s point of view it must avoid political turmoil and deliver a disciplined performance.
Failure here could open the door for England to win the title early on, but to be honest it’s bound to happen sooner rather than later. Neither Serbia nor Albania will have much say in it. Thomas Tuchel’s team is a very efficient side so far, unbeaten and with the most points.
If England can maintain their clinical finishing and defensive consistency, this draw could mean a relatively modest climb to qualification. But international holidays come with surprises, and Latvia will try to make them unpleasant.
Group D: France hosts Azerbaijan and travels to Iceland
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Kylian Mbappé continues to lead the French team from the front. His participation is non-negotiable as they want to secure a spot early.
With Aurélien Choameny suspended, France have a gap in midfield that they must address. Eduardo Camavinga could return and take on more responsibility.
France will play Azerbaijan at home and then travel to Iceland.
Azerbaijan have shown resilience at times, but Iceland’s compactness and aerial threat make them a difficult opponent at home. One wrong move in Reykjavik will raise eyebrows. Two wins would give France a confident position at the top of Group D.
See more: Others and wider context
Other groups offer interesting side stories. For example, Switzerland vs. Slovenia, Sweden vs. Kosovo (Group B), and Finland vs. Lithuania (Group G) may not have as much headline pressure, but are essential for secondary rankings.
Teams such as Croatia, Slovakia and Norway have long been eyed as countries that could qualify or qualify early this month. In a campaign where European teams have not yet mathematically qualified (as of early October), tensions are already running high in some locker rooms.
October’s results are likely to reshape the playoff map, and some teams may already have mentally shifted gears to the second route. Countries that stumble will find their margin for error narrowed.
October 2025 is more than just a stepping stone on the journey to the World Cup for European countries. It is the fulcrum moon. Successful teams may strut into June with a bang. Those who are lost will continue to have doubts until the final weeks.
A story of sacrifice, redemption, youthful ambition and veteran legacy will be told across Europe in 90-minute bursts as fans, analysts and players brace for the whistle.