The Road to UFC 318 Victory: Will Dustin Poirier win a trilogy with Max Holloway for the end of the fairy tale?

UFC 318 Saturday evening, Max Holloway Defends his “BMF” title Dustin Poilier. It’s a trilogy match where Poirier won both his first two meetings, all taking the backseat at the end of Poirier’s illustrious career, which is the biggest storyline of the week.

Saturday is the last time “Diamond” will take a walk in the octagon, and will do so in front of a crowd in his hometown of New Orleans at a pay-per-view event built to send him out in style. Will Poirier be able to do that at the end, or will Holloway be the first guy to ruin the weekend and successfully defend the BMF title?

Let’s jump in and take a look.

Max Holloway’s path to victory at UFC 318

What more should be said about Max Holloway at this point in his career? The man is a former champion, first Barott Hall of Fame, owns many UFC records and is only 33 years old. In fact, instead of talking about his incredible statistics, look at this graphic.

Holloway is literally in his own world when it comes to volume. During a “blessed” battle, you know what will come. Only now, it’s not just a punch. Holloway has been a boxer almost exclusively for most of his career, but in recent years he has added a kick game to Arsenal. Holloway is already 15 years into his fighting career, but the man is still adding new wrinkles to his game.

He needs them on Saturday. It was a long time ago, but Holloway was far better than it was back then, but Poilier’s defensive crafts, diverse toolboxes and power gave Holloway a lot of trouble in the rematch. The issue was clear to Holloway as he repeatedly said Polier was “funny.” Holloway didn’t have enough tools to change things. This Holloway is and he needs to lean against these new weapons.

The fundamental problem that Holloway has to solve in this fight is that Poirier is an equally skilled boxer, but packs more power than “blessed.” This means that equal exchanges are not equal at all. And since Poilier’s defense is very close to Holloway’s boxing, he can land a clean counter to confuse Max’s elongated combination, Holloway needs other tools to not only score, but also open his bread and butter stuff.

Kicking can be a big help in this regard. In the second fight, Holloway only attempted two leg kicks. A year later, when he rematched Alexander Volkanovsky, he threw a 55. Against Gaethje, that number rose to 69. It is a single major change in Holloway’s game in recent years, and it is very useful. Not only does it confuse timing and score points, it also opens up more traditional attacks and serves as a complement to Holloway’s bodywork. Max is always good at targeting your body, and it’s even more necessary at light weight. Raising the weight class, Holloway is looking for a war of more attrition, and bodywork helped him beat Gache in the UFC 300. Expect the same here too.

Finally, the potential difference maker of this fight is Holloway’s improved footwork. Max always had sharp hands, but now his feet are just as important. In the rematch, Poirier managed to drive Holloway out of position with some regularity and score with a rushing shot. This should be so feasible this time. In other words, Holloway means that it will take an exchange with even conditions.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zufa LLC via Getty Images

The road to Dustin Poilier’s victory at UFC 318

If Holloway aims to work on his feet and body, what should Poirier do? To paraphrase Thanos, aim for your head.

Why not check out the Holloway graphics again? Have you noticed anything else about that?

Tip: He is also the leader of strikes absorbed by the country mile, as he is as high as Max is landing. Throwing punches is usually back, so that’s not a surprise, but it’s still a bit offensive to see how much hit Holloway has been in his career. And those shots are beginning to add up. Two times ago, Justin Gesche became the first person to defeat Holloway. Then, in his final battle, Max was knocked out for the first time in his career. This is the trajectory for men who have fought the best competition in the world for over a decade.

Poilier must come to this fight, assuming Holloway is better prepared for his defense than the final go-around. However, due to Holloi’s offensive improvements through his career, Max’s impressive defense has not progressed at the same rate. Don’t get me wrong, Holloway has solid head movements and well punched rolls, but his game still depends on having the best chin ever. Even in the second matchup, Poirier was able to hurt Max with some regularity. that Should It’s going to be easier now.

Secondly, Poirier needs to lean against a kick in his foot. As long as he’s improved by adding his own kick, Holloway can still take his feet out from under him, and the calf kick is the natural counter of Holloway’s jab. You need to set up a big left hand for Poirier, with a score from the outside and outside low kicks to off balance max.

Finally, I want to confuse his offense as Poirier did in the rematch. I don’t think Poilier could take Holloway down, but he found real success in their second fight, forcing the clinch, using his physicality to shorten the fight and muted Holloway’s attack. Similar ones are a good idea on Saturday.

question

1. How does Max respond to suffering from his first KO? Some fighters are never the same. It seems very clear to me that Alexander Volkanovsky has completely shook the loss of KO to Islamic Makhachev. If Holloway brings this kind of energy to this, he’ll have a bad night.
2. How will Poilier’s pending retirement and the crowds in his hometown affect “diamonds”? Fighters react differently to everything, and the energy of retirement battles and the crowds in their hometown can lift you up, but all of the pressure can overwhelm or undermine the fighter’s performance.
3. What happens if Max points to the ground at the first moment of the fight? Honestly, I just want to see this happen. There’s no need to wait for the last 10 seconds. This is Dustin’s final battle of his career. Step into the phone booth and turn it off.

prediction

I think we’re taking part in another greatest classic of all time on Saturday. Poirier is one of the five most exciting fighters in MMA history, with Holloway in at least the top 10 conversations. When these two guys are locked in a cage, it’s almost always fireworks. He leaves it all there, as this is Poirier’s final ride. Both men give us everything we have. In that scenario, it is difficult not to eradicate the sentimental and fairy tale outcome.

Dustin Poirier is one of the most respected fighters in MMA and one of the few good guys essential in sports. He is what MMA should aim for, so during his final hours I hope that fate converges to give him the perfect send-off. Perhaps now, it will finally be.

Dustin Poirier def. Max Holloway by Submission (Guillotine Choke) – R4, 1:19.