Tom Aspinall. UFC 321. This is your moment.
Even as Jon Jones was parading as the “undisputed” champion, after winning the interim belt by defeating Sergei Pavlovic at UFC 295 (a postponed bout of Jones vs. Miocic), his ineffectiveness and insistence on defending his title against the older and even more ineffective Stipe Miocic opened the door for Aspinall to be considered the true heavyweight champion. Our MMA Fighting rankings committee quickly hailed Aspinall as the division’s true No. 1, but it wasn’t until Jones retired in June of this year that the UFC officially followed suit.
Now, Aspinall has finally taken on the undisputed mantle and must prove once again that he is worthy of the position when he takes on Cyril Gane in Saturday’s main event. Gane, who is also a former interim champion, had two chances to stake sole claim to the UFC heavyweight title, but was unsuccessful twice. He has nothing to lose, and an upset over Aspinall would make at least one fight fan infinitely happy.
The co-main event of UFC 321 will see Vilna Jandilova and Mackenzie Dern rematch to become the next strawweight champion. Pound-for-pound great Weili Zhang leaves the division to face flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322, giving two top contenders the chance to join the hallowed list of UFC title holders. Will it be the in-form Jandiroba or the eternally promising Dern who will end their long-awaited gold hunt?
Also on the main card, Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista clash in a match for the potential No. 1 bantamweight contender, Alexander Volkov and Geirton Almeida do the same at heavyweight, and light heavyweight veteran Aleksandar Rakic looks to break his slump by facing undefeated Azamat Murzakanov.
where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
when: Saturday, October 25th. The eight-game early preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+ and FX. The five-fight main card begins at 2 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing) mixed martial arts fightIworld ranking and Pound for Pound Ranking)
Tom Aspinall vs. Cyril Gane
To put it in a clichéd way, this is a fight Tom Aspinall is going to lose.
Aspinall and Cyril Gane have been in each other’s orbit for a while, long before Aspinall somehow won a UFC title. Do you know what I thought about this match at the time? Aspinall plans to either tackle Gane into submission or take him down with ground and pound. That prediction has not changed.
It’s a credit to Gaen, who has clearly worked to improve his grappling, as evidenced by his controversial split decision victory over Alexander Volkov. It’s still an incomplete toolset, but at least he’s trying to avoid getting bulldozed again like he did against Jon Jones. That said, I don’t think his wrestling defense is good enough to stop Aspinall.
Even considering Gane’s superior athleticism and agility, Aspinall could match him in that department, at least enough to find an angle to cut through the cage, grab Gane and get him to the mat. From there, it will likely be similar to the Jones fight. Maybe it’s worse.
Puncher’s chances, etc., and Gane has a knack for making life difficult for his opponents (again, anyone other than Jon Jones), but even if Aspinall takes a few rounds or three to catch him, he’ll catch him. That’s it.
Vilna Jandirova vs. Mackenzie Dern
Rematches are often very different from the first matchup, and given that Vilna Jandilova and Mackenzie Dern’s first match was almost five years ago, there is reason to believe that will likely be the case for Saturday’s co-main event. I’m not convinced.
Back at UFC 256, Jandiroba and Dern competed primarily on the feet, as their rich grappling pedigree canceled each other out. I’m expecting the same here. Although Jandiroba is much better at getting takedowns, Dern has no problem fighting from behind her and I would be surprised if Jandiroba could outwork her on the mat. Obviously, Dern was in the best shape of his life and already had a considerable athletic advantage over Jandiroba at the start.
So there’s a lot of hitting in this production, as well as some grueling sequences where fighters are pushed against fences or jostling for position. I’m expecting some takedowns and some nice scrambles, but I don’t think either fighter will be able to submit the other. I mean, can you imagine?
So let Dern compete in a stand-up contest. Her speed and power allow her to win most exchanges…
Mackenzie Dern is trying to become UFC Champion???
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
Full disclosure (and this is no secret to those who know my views): I have always been a supporter of Umar Nurmagomedov. I picked him to beat Merab Dvalishvili (wrong!), and if they have a rematch, I’ll pick him to beat Merab Dvalishvili again (I get it!).
So how can I compete with him here?
Honestly, if I didn’t believe so strongly in Nurmagomedov, I would have been worried about him. The man found a way to win matches, nibbling on Mario Bautista’s eight-game winning streak as much as he wanted. It may sound simple, but when you’re talking about finicky judge scorecards, it’s a real skill. It’s even art.
Just as important, Bautista makes a bad impression on his opponents. He has a talent for forcing his opponents to take the path of least resistance, which can lead to some ugly decisions, but those decisions often end up favoring Bautista. Dana White challenged Nurmagomedov to put on a show if he wants another shot at the title, but I don’t know if that’s even possible against Bautista.
In the best-case scenario, Nurmagomedov could display some high-level striking, but he also focuses on taking down Bautista early and often. Bautista has never faced a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s caliber… until now? And if that’s the focus of Nurmagomedov’s game plan, I don’t think he’ll stop the takedown.
you know what? I’m going to go ahead and predict that Nurmagomedov will surprise his boss with a submission late in round one.
Alexander Volkov vs. Geirton Almeida
What I just said about Nurmagomedov may go double for Geirton Almeida. This guy will be heavyweight champion someday.
Almeida’s disastrous five-round win over Derrick Lewis and subsequent disappointing loss to Curtis Blaydes took a toll on his opponents, but not irreparably! But he bounced back admirably by doing what he does best: finishing off his opponents and finishing them off quickly. His past two wins against Sergei Spivats and Alexander Romanov both came in the first round.
Alexander Volkov is several steps above the level of his opponents. He’s done well enough to beat Gane and should definitely be in Saturday’s main event, but instead he’s facing one of the most dangerous fighters in the division and playing as a gatekeeper to the top five. This is nothing new for the towering Volkov, who has ruined many candidates’ rise to the top.
You’ll want to choose Volkov just because of his majestic mane. You can see him repeating what Blaydes did to defeat Almeida, jamming the Brazilian’s signature takedowns into the fence and defeating Elmeida. However, Volkov was unlike Blaydes when it came to takedown defense, and even Blaydes was initially forced onto his back until winning in the second round. If Volkov finds himself in similar trouble, it will be difficult for him to recover.
There are concerns about Almeida’s cardiorespiratory fitness. That’s because he has rarely made it past the first round, and his only fight in the UFC was against Ruiz, where Almeida was in complete control for 25 minutes. Volkov has much more experience, so that could be the difference in the final frame.
With that in mind, I’m still choosing Almeida to take Kirin’s legs early and finish round 1 with Volkov on his back.
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
I’d like to see a back-and-forth battle here, but I have a feeling it’s going to be a one-way street either way.
If Aleksandar Rakic were to win, it would be because he had a much stronger schedule than Murzakhanov. No, Rakic hasn’t won a game since 2021 and has missed a lot of time due to injury. But he has also competed against the best of the best, with back-to-back losses to Magomed Ankalaev, Jiri Prochaska and Jan Blachowicz (his opponent with a knee injury). These are three UFC light heavyweight champions.
Who is Azamat Murzakhanov’s best opponent in the UFC? Alonzo Menifield? Dustin Jacoby? It’s a solid name, but it clearly doesn’t compare to anything Rakic has had to fight in the past.
So, this could either be a younger, more battle-tested Rakic showing Murzakanov that he has a level in this fight and pulling him away before it could potentially be over in the late stages, or Murzakanov just running through a sluggish Rakic. I agree with Murzakhanov’s hype, so I’ll stick with it.
Murzakhanov won by KO in the first round.
Nasrat Haqparast def. Quylan Sarkild
Ikram Ariskerov def. Park Joon Young
Mateusz Rebecki def. Radovit Klein
Balter Walker def.Louis Sutherland
Nathaniel Wood def. Jose Miguel Delgado
Chris Barnett def. Hamdi Abdelwahab
Azat Maxam def. Mitch Raposo
Jacqueline Amorim def. Mizuki Inoue