UFC Mexico Gamble Preview: Brandon Moreno vs Steve Elseg’s Best Benefit

The UFC is back in Mexico!

On Saturday, the latest UFC Mexico City card was held from Mexico City Arena CDMX, finding flyweight scrap between the former two-time champions Brandon Moreno Former Title Challenger Steve Elseg. But before that, let’s dive into the best picks and play this weekend, as we have 12 other fights to sip our whistle.

All possibilities are courtesy of our friends Fanduel Sportsbook.

Single Play

Kelvin Gastherm (+240)

Gastelum played against Joe Pyfer this weekend in a special main card battle, and this number has already plummeted since then. Earlier this week I was able to find Gastherum at +400 in some places, but Smart Money stopped it well. Still, this is the price of a big underdog for a guy who has a real shot in Saturday’s victory. Pyfer not only faces Pyfer’s physicality, but was supposed to be the next big thing in the middleweight division until he came across Jack Hermanson. That fight revealed that Pyfer still has a lot to do, and Gastelum is exactly what he would punish him if he didn’t. Gastherum has an unbreakable jaw and he continues to come after his opponent even when he falls. Given the price, it’s worth the shot.

Photo: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Prop bets

Start Brandon Moreno to Win & Round 2 (-185)

I mixed things a bit about this as I wanted to get a little better odds than the -250 Moreno straight action. That line isn’t awful, but you can squeeze a little more juice with this prop bet.

He’s a more dynamic and skilled fighter, so it’s really good that Moreno hits Elseg on Saturday. Elseg has great boxing, but his defensive wrestling is not the most powerful, and Moreno has a more diverse and impressive game and granite chin. I think he brings too many weapons against Elsegg and too many to lose. But I don’t know how he accomplished it. Because he’s very well balanced. My gut says that submissions may happen, but instead Moreno should win, he only has two first round finishes in the UFC, and only two after 2020.

Raul Rosas Jr. Depending on the point (+105)

Rosas Jr. is a huge favorite of Vince Morales, and it’s clear why. Aside from getting a UFC push, Rosas is legally talented, and Morales… not. Rosace should not have a big problem scoring takedowns and playing his grappling game to win. That being said, Morales has not been submitted since 2018 and he has battled some very good enemies. His durability means this probably goes to the scorecard.

Loopy Godiness Depending on the point (-155)

Godinez will face Julia Polastri in Saturday’s qualifying round. You’ll be shocked if she can’t win. Godinez has lost two times in a row, but these losses have come to two of the best women on the planet, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern. Meanwhile, Polastri won the split decision over Cory McKenna in a recent battle. Godinez brings a lot of pressure and can mix too many grapplings for Polastri to win, but since she’s not a finisher, this goes to the card.

Photo: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Parley

After hitting a big gimmick parlay last weekend (Chris Duncan Parlay is 2-0), he’ll be back to the well on Saturday. No, it’s not a Rodriguez parlay, but there’s a round one lead parlay on Saturday. Candidate Series.

David Martinez (-400)

Martinez faces Simon Oliveira on his promotional debut on Saturday, a clear set-up fight for the “Black Spartans.” Oliveira is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought in two years, but Martinez is already a sophisticated product and ready-made product to compete with high levels of opposition. The former convert champion should have a showcase for himself on Saturday.

Ateba Gautier (-430)

Saturday will also be Gautier’s UFC debut, and he will also face Jose Daniel Medina in qualifying in the fight for the set-up. Martinez is well-balanced and refined, but Gautier is a physical specimen I compared to Melvin Manhoev. Gautier needs some development, but Medina is the right opponent to get it to him, but does not offer any serious risk of a set-off either.

These two bets bets together for -185 odds.

summary

Hot Dame We did it! I was waiting for a big weekend all year round, so I finally got along with UFC London. We missed the main event (maybe add a bit badly), but we destroyed everything else, including some big losers there. I hope we can keep things moving for UFC Mexico.

Until next week, fight, wish you good luck and enjoy gambling responsibly!

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