Brandon Moreno is on a long way back to another shot in the UFC flyweight title.
He has dominated the division twice, and it has a big target on Moreno’s back, one Steve Elsegg is looking for a strike at the UFC Mexico Main Event on Saturday. Either way, Moreno is still one of the five best fighters in the world competing for 125 pounds, but the situation hasn’t been in his favor these days.
First, he lost the decision to split Nemesis into Alexander Pantoja. He then lost his split decision to Brandon Reibal. This was the result of doing it both ways, and again ended his hopes of facing Pantoja (for now). And despite his recent outing rebounding over Amir Albazi, it was always more matchups than Moreno gets and loses.
Again, Moreno is tasked with defending his spot against competitors who want to become candidates. Elseg is away from the knockout loss to Kai-Cala France and may be fighting even more with determination and despair than Moreno.
The high-level flyweight battles are always lively, but on Saturday there is an added layer of pressure, with the vibrant Mexican crowd wanting to bring Moreno back to glory.
what: UFC Mexico
where: Mexico City Arena CDMX
when: Saturday, March 29th. The seven-match spare cards begin at 4pm ET on ESPN 2 and ESPN+, followed by six-match main cards on ESPN2 and ESPN+ at 7pm.
(The numbers in parentheses indicate that they are standing MMA is fighting against global rankings))
Brandon Moreno (4) vs. Steve Elseg (13)
0-2-1.
0-7.
The first number? Brandon Moreno’s record match in Mexico City.
Second number? My record was to choose the UFC Fight Night Main Event in 2025.
In other words? Both have deadlines.
It’s a way to give things a little bit of a return, so let’s take a look at the actual style matchups. Moreno uses his incredible speed and skill to put pressure on every opponent he faces, and he does the same with the hot crowd behind him. Steve Erceg is not the type to overwhelm, so expect him to rely on technical boxing and sharp footwork to keep the danger down.
Elsegg’s grappling could also be a factor here, and the exchange between him and Moreno leads to some very interesting scramble. I’m always leaning towards Moreno because he’s proven over and over again. This could be a war of attrition after the first few rounds.
It is a war that Moreno wins. I like him to finally catch Elsegg with his feet and finish on the ground and pounds in the third or fourth early.
choose: Moreno
Manuel Torres vs. good drawing
Heading for his 25th UFC appearance (Bravo!), Drew Dober carved a nice niche for himself as a surefire action fighter who can flirt with top 15 greats. Is it time to hand over the torch to the next generation of lightweight entertainers?
If you choose your fan favorite fighter, you can do much worse than Manuel Torres. Torres beautifully uses his whimsical frame to attack from various angles and with lethal accuracy. When he smells blood, he rarely takes advantage of the opportunity.
There are plenty of opportunities for both fighters to land a knockout punch on this. Dover has always held power as a great equalizer for all his technical shortcomings. When he touches Torres’ chin, Torres descends as many others have. It’s all about who scores first.
I call it lazy, but I go with Torres, a young, lesser store, and punch Dover. Dover is threatened early, but when Torres finds the timing, a surgical strike sneaks in, turning Dover into the fall for a lot.
choose: Torres
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
Kelvin Gastherm to stay at the middleweight class. That’s good news. Now he has to deal with the intriguing finisher Joe Piffer.
It’s hard to get the right gauge for how good he really is. There’s no shame in that, as his only UFC loss is against veteran Jack Hermanson. He has proven to be cut in the middle of the middleweight pack and now he’s got another shot to prove he’s a future contender.
Size and athletic ability are here for Pyfer’s favor. There is entirely a possibility that he hoss Gastherm to the ground, wears him down in wrestling, and sets up a one-off interim title challenger as his resolve fades. Gastherm is a great wrestler in its own right, but there is a hole in his takedown defense.
Pyfer might want to slug it with Gastelum. That’s where I see the problem arise. Sixteen years after his professional fighting career, Gastherum still has a solid jaw, and Pifer gases early when he tries to bulldoze Gastherum. Adding Mexico City elevation could result in a suspicious gas tank being cancelled by Pyfer.
It must be a game plan for Gastherm and his team. Drag the Pyfer into the deep sea and let him drown in his own sweat until in round three it feels like the clock is etched backwards. If Pyfer isn’t prepared for that possibility, he can trip wildly.
Gastherm as determined.
choose: Gasttalum
Raul Rosas Jr. Vs. Vince Morales
Worldwide, say goodbye to 19-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. and prepare for the 20-year-old acquisition.
yes, Children’s Genius He’s not old enough to drink now, but more than old enough to continue his cage fighting career, where he saw him win nine of his first 10 fights, including the past three. Next up after Rosace is a veteran veteran, if nothing else, known for his purpose on his stick.
This is meant to be a still-fulfilled Rosas layup, and when it comes to Morales in the game, exactly how this should unfold. Rosas’ speed, athleticism and wrestling are exactly the kind of attributes that spell out trouble for Morales. “Vandetta” has the skills to put Rosas at risk, but Plucky Bantamweight should be able to move and crush Morales.
He was able to finish late, but I hope Rosace will have to work in the 3rd round to get the victory.
choose: Bara Junior
David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
Saimon Oliveira hasn’t fought in over two years, so he hopes his aerobic exercise will sniff out as David Martinez will move him.
Martinez, the signature of the 2024 Competitor Series, is about agility and angle. He invites Oliveira to chase him, mixing it with a smart counter with close defense before loosening. Assuming he doesn’t finish in round one, his pace increases as he progresses.
It’s Oliveira who mixes Martinez and throws Martinez out of rhythm, but I don’t know how effective Brazilian wrestling is in this matchup. Martinez keeps her hips constantly. Oliveira wastes a tremendous amount of energy if they can’t effectively set takedowns.
Oliveira sees Martinez fight with the sense of urgency that leads to his fate as he takes his strategy early and costumes him in the opening round.
choose: Martinez
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez is a classic coiled spring fighter. He is always ready to unleash the attack, and when he does, it comes in the form of an unpredictable burst of wrestling and wild shaking. He also tended to be too long, which led to some unstable start to his UFC fight.
These defensive lapses could be expensive against Kevin Borjas, the signature of the talented competitor series who struggled in several tough matches. He willingly lead the dance, taking advantage of the space for Rodriguez to let him go and attack with the impressive style of his freewheel.
Rodriguez should be able to win his way if the situation asks for it, so I was torn apart here, but I saw him eat so many clean shots and escape it with pure toughness. It’s not a sustainable strategy, and Borja can teach him a tough lesson.
Borjas due to knockout.
choose: Borjas
spare
Edgar Chairs def. CJ Vergara
Ateba Gautier def. Jose Daniel Medina
Christian Rodriguez def. Melchiza Elcosta
Loopy year (11) def. Julia Polastoria
Rafa Garcia def. I’m Pichell
Gabriel Miranda def. Jamal Emmers
Marquelo Mederos def. Austin Hubbard