With just under two years until the 2027 Rugby World Cup, it’s clear there will be a clash of styles underground. And unless both the Wallabies and All Blacks can improve their work under the high ball, a difficult tournament looms for the Super Rugby allies.
Both Australia and New Zealand are lamenting tough weekends in Europe, but neither team needs to dwell on what went wrong. But even more worrying for Joe Schmidt and Scott Robertson, and in the long run for Les Kiss, this is a problem that has plagued their team for some time.
It’s terrible under a highball.
One of England’s best performances of the Steve Borthwick era, led by a special performance from veteran fly-half George Ford and the introduction of the ‘Pom Squad’ bench, ultimately overwhelmed New Zealand, but the Wallabies were nothing short of devilish in the air in Dublin.
Time and time again, Ireland halves Jamison Gibson-Park and Sam Prendergast hoisted the ball high into the air at the swirling Aviva Stadium, earning at least some reward more than 50% of the time. When a team can’t wait to slow Garry Owen up from a quick tap, it’s clear the opposition has a problem.
The Wallabies’ decay began just 4.55 minutes into Prendergast’s first towering punt. Harry Potter’s air swing was one of many comical moments in Australia’s long kicking attack.
By the end of 60 minutes, when Australia still managed to stay in contention, they had all but given up on countering Ireland’s kicking game, giving hat-trick hero Mack Hansen a gentle path to catch up and regain possession, just as he had done in the lead up to Ireland’s fourth try.
Coincidentally, Collingwood coach Scott McCrae and other staff were observing the Wallabies training that week. But Schmidt admitted they had no advice on how to counter rugby’s aerial tendencies.
“I’ve had some coaches from Collingwood this week and I’ve just been watching and chatting with them and they’re very different technically,” Schmidt said when asked about how his team deals with high balls better.
“I think a lot of it is just players going up with one hand and trying to cause a little bit of chaos, but then whatever happens on the ground, it’s a scramble, it’s a crazy scramble that makes it difficult to control that aspect of the game.
“You need to guide your players around the contest to really participate effectively and make sure they have the best chance of getting what’s left in the contest.”
What is noteworthy is that the interpretation of the law has changed since this time last year, when “accompanied runners” were effectively ejected from the game at the whistle. Where once a retreating player could provide some protection from the chasing pack, now the slightest digression or charge is chicken fodder for the overzealous referee.
However, the back three players and the defensive fly-half in the backfield also took more than 12 months to adapt to that interpretation and improve their aerial game as a result. That’s not happening in Australia.
Meanwhile, Argentina used a similar game plan to great effect in their Rugby Championship victories over the All Blacks and Wallabies. And that approach, and its success, is no surprise as most of Pumas’ best players are spread across Europe these days, with high balls being played week in and week out in Premiership, Top 14 and United Rugby Championship competitions.
Meanwhile, the concern for the All Blacks and Robertson is that this is not a new phenomenon, and it was no wonder England full-back Freddie Steward soared through the air and kicked an attacking high ball in London at the weekend, immediately putting his team on the attack.
Will Jordan is arguably the most devastating attacking player on the planet, and his strike rate of 45 tries in 53 Tests is incredible and will likely eventually break Doug Howlett’s all-time New Zealand record of 49 five-pointers as early as next year. But while wingers Leroy Carter, Lester Faingaanuku, Caleb Clarke and Seb Reece are far more capable on the ground than in the air, he remains questionable under high balls.
All Blacks captain Scott Barrett said after the defeat at Twickenham’s Allianz Stadium: “We potentially overplayed at times. England did a really good job, putting it in the air and chasing it well.”
“You don’t get many chances in a Test match, but they took more chances than we did.”
The All Blacks may lament the ridiculous yellow card given to Cody Taylor, but they may also lament some rare but costly mistakes from Beauden Barrett in London, but their inability to defend their aerial duels is their glaring weakness heading into Australia 2027.
And it seems unlikely that either the Wallabies or All Blacks will be able to improve that part of their game through Super Rugby Pacific, given that their style of play tends to be much more ball-in-hand than airborne.
The only saving grace for the Wallabies and All Blacks come 2027 is that Australia’s pitches should be harder and faster and the weather in the second half of spring should be drier and warmer. They may be able to use their knowledge of local conditions and superior fitness to their advantage.
But if nothing improves from now on, Europe’s rugby elite and the Pumas will head Down Under knowing they have a blueprint to completely frustrate the Wallabies and put serious pressure on the All Blacks as well.