The European qualifying break in October brought about perhaps one of the most dramatic changes in Group A of the 2026 World Cup race. Germany defeated Luxembourg 4-0 and took the lead again. Meanwhile, Slovakia, who had been at the top of the group for a long time, collapsed with a shocking 2-0 defeat in Belfast and Northern Ireland.
What looked like a slow march toward certainty turned into a tense three-way contest, with Germany (albeit temporarily) crowned.
Germany statement: 4-0 victory over Luxembourg
The game in Sinsheim was by no means a cliffhanger. Germany took control from the start and Luxembourg’s fate hung in the balance when Dirk Karlsson was sent off for handballing inside the penalty area. This decision gave Joshua Kimmich the chance to take a shot from the spot, which he did with calm precision. From then on, Germany never looked back.
In fact, Kimmich then doubled his tally, including a superb second goal, and showed leadership in midfield. Serge Gnabry also found the back of the net and left-back David Raum scored his first international goal. Raum’s attack was particularly satisfying. He is often praised for his attacking runs and overlaps, but this finish showed he gave an extra dimension to his contribution.
Despite their numerical superiority, Germany’s performance was not without its caveats. Coach Julian Nagelsmann said it would take patience, discipline and collective pressing to break down a compact and defensive Luxembourg side. Still, the advantage was clear. Germany pinned their opponents at the back, controlled possession, rotated the attack and avoided major defensive lapses.
This wasn’t just three points, it was a psychological point. After stumbling early in the campaign, Germany needed to stop the bleeding and reaffirm its credentials as a candidate. For now, mission accomplished.
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Belfast upset: Northern Ireland beat Slovakia
Meanwhile, in Belfast, Northern Ireland suffered one of the biggest surprises of the season in Group A with a 2-0 victory over Slovakia.
The breakthrough came in the 18th minute with an unlucky own goal from Patrick Hrosovski, who deflected a low cross from Ethan Galbraith. This gave the host credibility and control. Slovakia never came back to life. Try Hume led the charge late in the game. In the 81st minute, he fired a powerful volley into the net (after a spilled clearance) to seal the victory and send Belfast into jubilation.
As a result, the dynamics of Group A changed drastically. Slovakia, boosted in confidence by their recent victory over Germany and victory in Luxembourg, appeared to be at the top of their group, but suddenly found themselves vulnerable. Long an outsider, Northern Ireland has both points and beliefs.
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new order and ranking
Currently, the top three teams in Group A are tied at six points each (after three games), with the teams tied on goal difference. Germany takes the lead thanks to its overall margin. In second place is Northern Ireland. Slovakia fell to 3rd place. As expected, Luxembourg remained in last place with 0 points.
Germany’s claim to the top spot is largely due to the emphasis on Germany’s isolated victory in the tiebreaker rankings. Northern Ireland’s victory over Slovakia gave them both a tangible point and a psychological advantage. On the other hand, Slovakia’s decline was sudden and painful.
What’s still happening this month?
The drama isn’t over yet. Germany’s next challenge is an away match against Northern Ireland. Technically it’s still a group match, but it’s a showdown that feels like a real knockout. Winners can place markers for direct qualification. (Germany already has the safety net of qualifying for the playoffs based on their Nations League rankings, but the prize money still remains for group winners.)
In contrast, Slovakia will host Luxembourg. Expect them to take the lead in the tie, but this challenge is more mental than physical. They will rebuild their confidence, regain their arrogance, and hope for a slip-up from either of the top two. A slip in that game would have been terrible.
A draw or trade between Germany and Northern Ireland would open the door again. If Slovakia gets a big win (and other teams drop points), they could be back in contention. The final game in November, between Germany and Slovakia, looms as a potential climax.
Themes, players and stakes
Joshua Kimmich has justified his position as the cornerstone of Germany’s midfield. His penalties, second goals and overall control show why the team relied on him.
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David Raum’s breakthrough goal gave confidence to an already promising defence. Gnabry remains a threat in transition.
Meanwhile, Northern Ireland’s heroes will be etched into folklore. Try Hume’s volley was a bold moment and Galbraith’s cross that led to his own goal showed the tenacity of the attack. Meanwhile, Slovakia must ask difficult questions about how to respond to its broken state of mind and how to rebuild unity.
For Germany, this October meant that a rescue operation of sorts turned into a victory. For Slovakia, this is a sharp reality check. Northern Ireland’s victory was a springboard that injected belief into a campaign that many had given up on.
In the coming weeks, margins will shrink, mistakes will widen, and stories will sharpen. But for now, Germany is tentatively crowned Group A.